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Week 47
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November 29, 2007


THU
29
NOV
2007

CIC minimum return

By Michael Pettis

Lou Jiwei, the CEO of the CIC, spoke at a banking forum in Beijing yesterday.  According to the South China Morning Post he “calculated that CIC needed to earn at least 300 million yuan a day just to break even because of the 5 per cent interest rate on the special bonds used to finance it.”

 

A 5% coupon on its RMB funding plus an expected annual RMB appreciation vis a vis the US dollar of anywhere from 7% to 10% means that the CIC needs to earn 12 1/2 to 15 1/2% percent in US dollars just to break even.  If they are successful they should immediately leave China and set up a hedge fund in Greenwich, Connecticut.  I am pretty sure I could help them raise lots of money.

 



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Biography

 

Michael Pettis is a professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, where he specializes in Chinese financial markets.  He has also taught, from 2002 to 2004, at Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management and, from 1992 to 2001, at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business.   He is a member of the board of directors of ABC-CA Fund Management Co., a Sino-French joint venture based in Shanghai.

 

Pettis has worked on Wall Street in trading, capital markets, and corporate finance since 1987, when he joined the Sovereign Debt trading team at Manufacturers Hanover (now JP Morgan). Most recently, from 1996 to 2001, Pettis worked at Bear Stearns, where he was Managing Director-Principal heading the Latin American Capital Markets and the Liability Management groups. He has also worked as a partner in a merchant banking boutique that specialized in securitizing Latin American assets and at Credit Suisse First Boston, where he headed the emerging markets trading team. Besides trading and capital markets, Pettis has been involved in sovereign advisory work, including for the Mexican government on the privatization of its banking system, the Republic of Macedonia on the restructuring of its international bank debt, and the South Korean Ministry of Finance on the restructuring of the country’s commercial bank debt.

 

Pettis is a member of the Institute of Latin American Studies Advisory Board at Columbia University as well as the Dean’s Advisory Board at the School of Public and International Affairs.  He is the author of several books, including The Volatility Machine: Emerging Economies and the Threat of Financial Collapse (Oxford University Press, 2001).  He received an MBA in Finance in 1984 and an MIA in Development Economics in 1981, both from Columbia University.

 

He can be contacted at michael@pettis.comOpen in a new window.