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August 1, 2007


WED
1
AUG
2007

More NPLs?

By Michael Pettis

According to today's South China Morning Post:

 

Loose credit policies are threatening a fresh spate of bad loans, the mainland central bank warned in a report aimed at regional governments and local lenders.

 

Excessive leveraged investment in fixed assets and a high concentration of long-term loans have increased the chances of loans turning sour, according to the ChinaOpen in a new window Regional FinancialOpen in a new window Stability Report, released by the ShanghaiOpen in a new window office of the People's Bank of China.

 

 

"Banks' credit concentration is quite high, the structural problem of a high proportion of medium- and long-term loans shows no sign of abating and there is growing pressure of a rebound in non-performing loans," the China BusinessOpen in a new window News quoted the report as saying.

 

The renewed warning on bad loans chimes in with recent government calls to cool over-investment and tighten credit policy amid fears that excessive liquidity is leading to overheating.

 



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Biography

 

Michael Pettis is a professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, where he specializes in Chinese financial markets.  He has also taught, from 2002 to 2004, at Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management and, from 1992 to 2001, at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business.   He is a member of the board of directors of ABC-CA Fund Management Co., a Sino-French joint venture based in Shanghai.

 

Pettis has worked on Wall Street in trading, capital markets, and corporate finance since 1987, when he joined the Sovereign Debt trading team at Manufacturers Hanover (now JP Morgan). Most recently, from 1996 to 2001, Pettis worked at Bear Stearns, where he was Managing Director-Principal heading the Latin American Capital Markets and the Liability Management groups. He has also worked as a partner in a merchant banking boutique that specialized in securitizing Latin American assets and at Credit Suisse First Boston, where he headed the emerging markets trading team. Besides trading and capital markets, Pettis has been involved in sovereign advisory work, including for the Mexican government on the privatization of its banking system, the Republic of Macedonia on the restructuring of its international bank debt, and the South Korean Ministry of Finance on the restructuring of the country’s commercial bank debt.

 

Pettis is a member of the Institute of Latin American Studies Advisory Board at Columbia University as well as the Dean’s Advisory Board at the School of Public and International Affairs.  He is the author of several books, including The Volatility Machine: Emerging Economies and the Threat of Financial Collapse (Oxford University Press, 2001).  He received an MBA in Finance in 1984 and an MIA in Development Economics in 1981, both from Columbia University.

 

He can be contacted at michael@pettis.comOpen in a new window.