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Week 34
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August 27, 2007


MON
27
AUG
2007

Stimulating capital outflows

By Michael Pettis

An interesting quote from today's Financial Times discusses the time it took for Japanese capital outflows to become significant.

Chinese investors, excluding the central bank, currently hold foreign securities worth 5 per cent of annual economic output.  [Capital Economics' China analyst] Mark Williams said China would generate $1,300bn of additional overseas investment if the country raised its level of foreign portfolio investment to the average for member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

 

"Of course, this will not happen immediately,” Williams says. “It took Japan 20 years from the opening of its capital account in the 1980s for its foreign portfolio holdings to rise from five per cent to 40 per cent of gross domestic product.”



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Biography

 

Michael Pettis is a professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, where he specializes in Chinese financial markets.  He has also taught, from 2002 to 2004, at Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management and, from 1992 to 2001, at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business.   He is a member of the board of directors of ABC-CA Fund Management Co., a Sino-French joint venture based in Shanghai.

 

Pettis has worked on Wall Street in trading, capital markets, and corporate finance since 1987, when he joined the Sovereign Debt trading team at Manufacturers Hanover (now JP Morgan). Most recently, from 1996 to 2001, Pettis worked at Bear Stearns, where he was Managing Director-Principal heading the Latin American Capital Markets and the Liability Management groups. He has also worked as a partner in a merchant banking boutique that specialized in securitizing Latin American assets and at Credit Suisse First Boston, where he headed the emerging markets trading team. Besides trading and capital markets, Pettis has been involved in sovereign advisory work, including for the Mexican government on the privatization of its banking system, the Republic of Macedonia on the restructuring of its international bank debt, and the South Korean Ministry of Finance on the restructuring of the country’s commercial bank debt.

 

Pettis is a member of the Institute of Latin American Studies Advisory Board at Columbia University as well as the Dean’s Advisory Board at the School of Public and International Affairs.  He is the author of several books, including The Volatility Machine: Emerging Economies and the Threat of Financial Collapse (Oxford University Press, 2001).  He received an MBA in Finance in 1984 and an MIA in Development Economics in 1981, both from Columbia University.

 

He can be contacted at michael@pettis.comOpen in a new window.