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Entries for 2008


January 2008

$20 billion for China Development Bank complicates monetary policy 7 months ago
Is China sneaking in a revaluation? 7 months ago
The government condemns Chinese financial markets to speculation 7 months ago
Chinese census numbers 7 months ago
Chinese consumer spending is down 7 months ago
Why hasn't the PBoC given us loan growth targets? 7 months ago
Hypersensitivity 7 months ago
China's food imports down but prices up 7 months ago
Where is Chinese money going? 7 months ago
Chinese money growth and disguised loan sales 7 months ago
Will Olympic hype lead to Olympian depression? 7 months ago
China wants to force inflation down. Can it? 7 months ago
New leadership? 6 months ago
December's trade surplus declines to $22.7 billion 6 months ago
Should China try to avoid a crisis, or minimize its impact? 6 months ago
The cause of China’s trade surplus 6 months ago
China’s loan constraints are biting 6 months ago
PBoC raises reserve requirements to 15% 6 months ago
No surprise – QDIIs are a bust in China 6 months ago
Can stagflation hit China? 6 months ago
Chinese provinces will help with price controls 6 months ago
Chinese banks aren't yet home free 6 months ago
More on QDIIs (and Chinese salaries) 6 months ago
Chinese pro-cyclicality makes predictions so difficult 6 months ago
Chinese bank stocks are volatile? Who knew? 6 months ago
China's economy – a speeded-up version of the rest of the world 6 months ago
China's latest batch of numbers aren't good 6 months ago
A $7.1 billion loss? 6 months ago
Chinese weather is complicating policymaking 6 months ago
The new China-Europe-US world order 6 months ago
Things have gotten grimmer in China 6 months ago
More on why high share prices don’t mean Chinese banks are in good shape 6 months ago

February 2008

Chinese stagflation? 6 months ago
China can't decide whether to tighten or loosen 6 months ago
Inflation predictions 6 months ago
In China even Warren Buffet would be a speculator 6 months ago
China: more on “will they or won’t they”? 6 months ago
A US slowdown won’t help China 6 months ago
China’s adjustment isn’t being made any easier 5 months ago
China’s mystery value does NOT enhance its creditworthiness 5 months ago
January new lending and new money soars in China 5 months ago
China’s trade surplus was higher than expected (again) 5 months ago
Bad numbers, but China might still prefer to hesitate 5 months ago
Should we expect a one-off jump or more gradual appreciation of the renminbi? 5 months ago
China Daily on inflation 5 months ago
Does the PBoC think hot money is a problem? 5 months ago
Victor Shih on China’s credit boom 5 months ago
NPLs for the big commercial banks rose last quarter 5 months ago
When will China overtake the US economically? 5 months ago
RMB appreciation slows, but so what? 5 months ago
Will inflation affect China and the US differently? 5 months ago
More warnings on inflation vigilance in China 5 months ago
Revisiting the one-child policy 5 months ago

March 2008

Monetary alarmists back in control? 5 months ago
Don't relax! 5 months ago
What is going on with PBoC January reserve increases? 5 months ago
Hot money IS a concern 5 months ago
More, or less, RMB appreciation? 5 months ago
Political advisor: Hot money rush may worsen inflation 5 months ago
High PPI inflation, low trade surplus, but it doesn't much matter 5 months ago
Why low non-food inflation doesn't mean inflation isn't a problem in China 4 months ago
More attention on the RMB 4 months ago
Some numbers on Chinese demographics 4 months ago
5% revaluation of the RMB? Are you crazy? 4 months ago
Fuel shortages, inflation, unemployment, and sundry matters 4 months ago
We'll do anything to kill inflation except threaten employment 4 months ago
Minimum reserves up. Stamp duty down? 4 months ago
Tax repeal rumor caused a rebound in Shanghai 4 months ago
How do you turn this thing off? 4 months ago
Chinese loan sales 4 months ago
The RMB and contradictory policies on inflation and unemployment 4 months ago
Deconstructing Chinese inflation 4 months ago
China's monetary trap 4 months ago
First QDII liquidated – reversing previous money outflows 4 months ago
Golfers prevented from making speculative profits on the RMB 4 months ago
Damned firewall 4 months ago
Stock market still lurches downward. Are we near the bottom? 4 months ago

April 2008

PMI numbers are too strong 4 months ago
Save the stock market investor! 4 months ago
Waiting for the CPI inflation report – and not just in China 4 months ago
China's rising inflation will spread from food to other goods and services 4 months ago
The savings glut is looking for a new equilibrator 4 months ago
Is China mercantilist? 4 months ago
The Great Wall of Chinese liquidity 4 months ago
Inflation consensus is inching higher 4 months ago
Money keeps pouring in 4 months ago
Am I surprised by the biggest yet jump in reserves? 3 months ago
Tooting my own horn 3 months ago
So many questions about PBoC reserve growth 3 months ago
Food is becoming a global problem 3 months ago
Have we begun the countdown to the maxi-revaluation? 3 months ago
New loans exceeded the loan cap 3 months ago
Non-food inflation is rising 3 months ago
Minimum reserve requirements jump to 16% 3 months ago
The RMB and the euro 3 months ago
More evidence of increasing risks 3 months ago
Inflation projections and manipulated stock markets 3 months ago
Stagflation revisited 3 months ago
Food prices and energy shortages 3 months ago
Stock market rises 9.3% 3 months ago
Stock market is down today 3 months ago
Rice and margin 3 months ago
The market isn't too happy, and adjustment risks may be growing 3 months ago
Is RMB appreciation slowing? 3 months ago
Exporters are complaining loudly 3 months ago

May 2008

Sleepy May Day holiday 3 months ago
CPI inflation in may be negative 3 months ago
Better too loose than too tight? 3 months ago
Perceptions of market support can add shocks 3 months ago
How long will the inflation respite last? 3 months ago
Hoarding money 3 months ago
PPI inflation is 8.1%. Will CPI inflation come in at 8.5%? 3 months ago
A post on the Chinese music scene 2 months ago
CPI for April was 8.5%, and minimum reserves up 0.5% 2 months ago
Demographic projections and trade implications 2 months ago
The devastating earthquake is also bad for monetary policy 2 months ago
PBoC is biased towards more tightening 2 months ago
No but this time really is different 2 months ago
Green on the PBoC Q1 report 2 months ago
The effect of the earthquake is increasing uncertainty 2 months ago
Lots of speculation on oil price hikes 2 months ago
The informal banking sector is growing 2 months ago
What? $74.5 billion? Is this a mistake? 8 weeks ago
China's relative economic growth during the past 80 year 8 weeks ago
Lower inflation in May? 8 weeks ago
Sputtering along 8 weeks ago
Inflation won't peak yet 8 weeks ago
CSRC to mutual funds: Stop selling! 8 weeks ago

June 2008

Chinese monetary policy is driven primarily by RMB speculation 7 weeks ago
More on speculation and Chinese monetary policy 7 weeks ago
Chinese savings and US deficits 7 weeks ago
Policy paralysis 7 weeks ago
Administrative measures trump market measures (for now) 7 weeks ago
Another 1% hike in minimum reserves 7 weeks ago
Why price controls won't help Chinese inflation 6 weeks ago
Awful stock market and qualified good news on inflation 6 weeks ago
PPI for May is 8.2% 6 weeks ago
As expected May CPI is 7.7% 6 weeks ago
Muddling along 6 weeks ago
Is the economy slowing? 5 weeks ago
More terrible trading 5 weeks ago
Fuel prices rise 5 weeks ago
Of course Chinese dollar holdings rose, but something changed drastically 4 weeks ago
China’s reserves grew $40.3 billion in May 29 days ago
Inflation? Or stagnation? 28 days ago
Markets worry about another interest rate hike in China 27 days ago
Some anecdotal evidence of risks in the banking system 25 days ago

July 2008

Hot money and informal banking 21 days ago
The PBoC battles hot money 21 days ago
Hot weather, cold market 20 days ago
Internal debate intensifies 19 days ago
Shanghai seems to discount the fight against inflation 17 days ago
The stock market is feeling happy again 15 days ago
What is money growth in China? 14 days ago
Lower export growth = higher chance of policy mistake 14 days ago
Money is way too loose, not too tight 13 days ago
June headline reserve growth was $11.9 billion, but real growth was actually muc 10 days ago
Financial system risks can grow 8 days ago
Waiting for the man 8 days ago
June CPI suggests inflation is moderating, but PPI tells a different story 7 days ago
Tightness in the money market? 6 days ago
Housing is still up, but rationing is spreading 3 days ago
American-style crises versus Latin-American-style crises 2 days ago
Hot money and inflation risks are still being downplayed 5 hours ago
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Biography

 

Michael Pettis is a professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, where he specializes in Chinese financial markets.  He has also taught, from 2002 to 2004, at Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management and, from 1992 to 2001, at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business.   He is a member of the board of directors of ABC-CA Fund Management Co., a Sino-French joint venture based in Shanghai.

 

Pettis has worked on Wall Street in trading, capital markets, and corporate finance since 1987, when he joined the Sovereign Debt trading team at Manufacturers Hanover (now JP Morgan). Most recently, from 1996 to 2001, Pettis worked at Bear Stearns, where he was Managing Director-Principal heading the Latin American Capital Markets and the Liability Management groups. He has also worked as a partner in a merchant banking boutique that specialized in securitizing Latin American assets and at Credit Suisse First Boston, where he headed the emerging markets trading team. Besides trading and capital markets, Pettis has been involved in sovereign advisory work, including for the Mexican government on the privatization of its banking system, the Republic of Macedonia on the restructuring of its international bank debt, and the South Korean Ministry of Finance on the restructuring of the country’s commercial bank debt.

 

Pettis is a member of the Institute of Latin American Studies Advisory Board at Columbia University as well as the Dean’s Advisory Board at the School of Public and International Affairs.  He is the author of several books, including The Volatility Machine: Emerging Economies and the Threat of Financial Collapse (Oxford University Press, 2001).  He received an MBA in Finance in 1984 and an MIA in Development Economics in 1981, both from Columbia University.

 

He can be contacted at michael@pettis.comOpen in a new window.